I found the
organization that
this came from -
http://www.unpan.org/
Bush Administration
Tax Policy at a
Crossroads
Washington -
After the third tax
cut in three years,
some Bush
administration
policy-makers are
pushing for a more
fundamental overhaul
of the system that
would largely
shelter investments
from taxation,
dramatically
changing the way
Americans are taxed
and how the
government is
financed. But
they're running into
opposition from a
surprising quarter:
White House
officials who fear
such prescriptions
could have dangerous
economic and
political
consequences at a
time of growing
budget deficits.
At the heart of the
matter is an
ambition of
conservative tax
theorists in and
outside of the Bush
administration to
pursue tax cuts not
only to relieve the
burden on Americans,
but to create a new
system that they
believe will make
the economy
stronger.
Their ambitions
outstrip what even
some conservative
tax-cutting
Republicans think
are feasible or
wise. Until now,
both camps have
pursued tax-cutting
in close alliance
because they agreed
that lower taxes
were the right
policy. But now,
they've reached a
crossroads and are
divided about where
to go next and why.
"My look at tax
reform tells me, I
don't see it,"
outgoing White House
budget director
Mitchell Daniels
said last week,
referring to certain
proposals crafted by
the Treasury
Department for
another wave of
tax-cutting. "The
political problems
are too intractable.
... Until (Bush)
sees a system that
has social justice
and economic smarts,
I don't think he'll
spend any time on
it."
Pamela Olson, the
assistant Treasury
secretary for tax
policy, said she
doesn't see a
division in the
administration. She
downplayed the
significance of the
next steps toward
tax reform advocated
by Treasury. "All
we're doing is
simplifying things,
opening things up,"
Olson said. But tax
theorists say
they've achieved far
more in three years
than they'd
expected.
Since President Bush
took office, this
decade's federal tax
bill has been cut by
more than $1.7
trillion. That
amount would more
than double if tax
cut provisions now
set to expire are
extended. Federal
tax revenue, as a
percentage of the
overall economy,
will fall this year
to about 16.5
percent, its lowest
level since the
Eisenhower
administration.
The record federal
budget surplus of
$236 billion
recorded in
President Clinton's
final year in office
has turned into a
record deficit now
expected to surpass
$400 billion this
year, in part
because of those tax
policies.
Specific changes to
the tax code mean
the government now
depends more on
taxing wages than
investment income
such as dividends,
capital gains and
interest. Because
investment income
and inheritances
tend to flow to the
very rich, the
effective federal
tax rate on
households earning
more than $416,000
will have fallen
from 32.7 percent
when Bush took
office to 26.9
percent by 2010,
while their share of
federal taxation
will have dropped
from 24.3 percent to
22.8 percent.
The architects of
the last three tax
cuts in Treasury and
the Council of
Economic Advisers
say their combined
effect will be to
push the United
States
toward the Holy
Grail of
conservative tax
theory: a tax system
that they believe
would promote
economic efficiency
and growth by
focusing taxation on
consumption while
rewarding
investment.
[Keep
in mind that big
investors are NOT
investing in the
United States - they
are investing in
China and India. ]These
administration
officials argue that
taxing returns on
investment amounts
to unfair and
punitive "double
taxation," since the
income that was
invested was taxed
when it was earned.
Critics have long
held that such a
system would
unfairly shift the
tax burden from the
affluent to the
working class,
worsening income
inequality. Besides,
by granting
businesses lucrative
tax breaks on their
income, then
slashing taxes on
dividends and
capital gains,
administration
policy-makers are
not ensuring that
corporate income and
investment gains are
taxed only once,
said William Gale an
economist at the
Brookings
Institution; they
are ensuring much of
it isn't taxed at
all. Glenn Hubbard,
former chairman of
the White House
Council of Economic
Advisers, said that
for the president,
reforming the tax
code to eliminate
taxation of
investments was
never the primary
motive. But to
others in the
administration, it
was always a goal.
"The discussions the
president instigated
will be a good
precursor to tax
reform," Hubbard
said, "and that
wasn't lost on
anybody." Last year,
Ernest Christian, a
Treasury official in
the Reagan
administration and
founder of the
Committee for
Strategic Tax
Reform, devised a
blueprint for
stealth tax reform
in "five easy
pieces."
Placed against the
tax cuts of the past
three years,
Christian's agenda
is beginning to look
like a road map:
lower marginal
income tax rates,
including capital
gains tax rates;
eliminate taxes on
dividends;
accelerate the speed
with which
businesses can write
investment expenses
off their tax bills;
expand the Roth
Individual
Retirement Account
to all personal
saving; and exclude
export and other
foreign trade income
of American
companies from
taxation. The first
piece, lower rates,
has now been
accomplished. The
top income tax rate
of 39.6 percent in
2001 has now fallen
to 35 percent, while
the tax rate on most
capital gains has
fallen from 20
percent to 15
percent. The second
piece took a
substantial leap
toward completion
when Washington
slashed taxes on
corporate dividends
last month from a
top rate of 38.6
percent to 15
percent for most
dividends, and 5
percent for others.
A year ago, the
concept of the
"double taxation of
corporate earnings,"
as opponents refer
to dividend
taxation, didn't
exist in the
political lexicon.
Now it's front and
center. As for the
third piece, tax
cuts in 2002 and
2003 ramped up
depreciation rates
to the point where
companies can now
write off at least
half the cost of
their investments in
the first year. And
with his 2003
budget, Bush
appeared to have
followed Christian's
fourth
recommendation
precisely by
proposing "Lifetime
Savings Accounts"
that would allow
every American,
regardless of age or
income, to shield
$7,500 a year from
investment taxation.
The accounts would
be accessible at any
time for any reason.
A family of five
could squirrel away
$37,500 annually, a
figure that very few
Americans could even
contemplate saving.
"If you beat your
breast, jump up and
down, and come in
with some
revolutionary idea
to change the tax
code overnight,
you're just going to
scare the devil out
of everyone; we
don't do
revolutionary
things," Christian
said recently "Now,
the last stage,
three years or so
from now, is that we
say we've done the
substance (of tax
reform) already, but
the code is still
complicated. Let's
really simplify it a
lot and finish the
job." The current
debate in the
administration is
centered on the
savings accounts.
Treasury's Olson and
Andrew Lyon,
Treasury's head of
tax analysis, both
highlighted the
lifetime savings
account proposals in
speeches to two
major financial
trade groups earlier
this month. Daniels,
in an interview,
dismissed the
proposal as more of
"a discussion piece"
than a legislative
initiative. It first
appeared in the
president's 2004
budget, described as
a modest step toward
simplifying the tax
code by establishing
a single,
tax-favored savings
account to replace
existing medical,
education and
retirement savings
accounts.
The broader
ramifications of the
proposal emerged
only after the
budget was released,
Daniels said, and it
took the White House
by surprise. "I
freely admit that I
didn't and I don't
think most people
realize how
fundamental a
difference those
proposals, if fully
acted on, would be,"
Daniels said. He
attributed the
inclusion of the
proposal in the
budget to a "policy
hitch," saying "pure
tax policy tended to
be sort of left at
Treasury" and was
not coordinated with
the White House. A
senior Treasury
official, who spoke
on condition of not
being identified,
strenuously
disagreed and called
the proposal "fully
vetted and
considered." The
proponents of broad
reform include
academics for whom
such theory is
hardly radical, like
Hubbard, who has
returned to Columbia
University, and his
successor Gregory
Mankiw, who is on
leave from Harvard
University. They
also include tax
lawyers like Olson
and her predecessor
Mark Weinberger, who
both worked as
advisers on a 1996
congressionally
appointed commission
that recommended the
nation exempt
investment income
from taxation and
tax all wages at the
same rate.
Treasury's
determination is
giving conservative,
anti-tax activists
something to cheer
for, and that may be
the White House's
intention,
administration
sources say.
"In each of these
fronts, we've found
we've pushed and
there's an open
door," said Grover
Norquist, an
influential
conservative
activist at
Americans for Tax
Reform. "We'll keep
moving forward as
fast as we can. No
one I have talked to
has any expectation
that we will have
anything less than a
tax cut every year
of the eight years
of the Bush
administration."
One Republican
economist with close
administration ties
said White House
officials have begun
soliciting advice on
tax proposals that
could be sold as
both reform and
deficit reduction.
The growing deficit
and its potential
impact on Bush's
campaign for
re-election is now
drawing their
attention. "If we
ever reform taxes,
in my judgment, you
have to put all the
chips on the table,"
said Daniels,
specifically
mentioning
increasing capital
gains taxes as an
engine for balancing
the budget.
From Detroit News,
MI, by Jonathan
Weisman, 13 June
2003